I am not a Russian specialist and know that in fast breaking events analysts are often working with little or no solid evidence. Indeed, my experience has been that in these sort of situations some of the intelligence community’s best evidence often comes from CNN and others who have people on the ground – not classified sources. Currently, everyone seems to believe that Putin has been weakened by Prigozhin’s antics over the weekend. I have to say that jumping to such a conclusion on such little evidence causes my analytical antenna to quiver a bit.
One need not have access to classified information to have followed the Wagner chief’s angry complaints for weeks about the Minister of Defense and his mishandling of the “special operation” in Ukraine. Early unconfirmed reporting indicated that he was being pressed to have his forces integrated into the regular Army. Others suggested that the Minister had ordered an attack on his troops. Either or both could easily have caused him to take his disenchantment to the next level – threatening to march on Moscow. What he might not have been counting on, however, was that no one else followed his lead and broke ranks with Putin. It certainly helps explain his standing down his forces 120 miles or so from the capitol. Continuing on alone would have been foolish and cause enough for him to seek an exit ramp. Certainly, none of this suggests to me that what transpired suggests a Putin running scared or a country in crisis. Indeed, based on the little we know, I think you could easily conclude that the weekend’s events demonstrate Putin is firmly in control.
More troubling to me about the rush to judgement is how the world will perceive Ukraine over the next several weeks: Putin and Russia are in crisis. Many seem to think that these latest developments will make it easier for Kyiv’s counter offensive. People say the Wagner forces are at best disorganized and some suggest that the “crisis” will impact the will of the regular Russian forces. Let’s hope that this is the case; that the Ukrainians make real progress against a foe that has had weeks to prepare its defensive positions. The talk of crisis and its impact on public opinion here and in Europe, however, greatly increases expectations we will see major Ukrainian gains. Let’s hope that is the case. Because unless Kyiv’s forces perform noticeably better than they have over the past few weeks, those already questioning the wisdom of a lengthy commitment will gain supporters. We could also see the Biden Administration’s requests for additional military assistance facing stiffer resistance. Not something his supporters want to dominate the upcoming election cycle, I would think.
Just saying.