With so much talk about Taiwan I thought it time to share my near term (out 5-10 years) and long-term predictions (10-15 years) of China’s possible actions regarding the democratic island nation. Despite all the headlines and worry about China’s take aways from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit, my bottom-line assessment remains the same — rather optimistic.
Excellent assessment! You are one of the few who address the complexities of an amphibious operation onto Taiwan. The beaches are narrow, the offshore approach anchorages daunting, the exits quite few and, where present in numbers, are often obstructed or channelized by cliffs, coastal mountains, and urban complexes.
Thoughtful, reasoned, historically grounded and, reflecting crucial real world experience with estimating events, including how far, or not estimators should go. Without the requirement to observe the bright line between intelligence and policy as a card-carrying private citizen these days, I would only add that events in this country underscore the possibility of, as you put, it 'stupid' playing an unpredictable role in US decisions down the road. That the Xi's and Putins of the world have watched our domestic political forces at work (as have our allies) undermining both our political system and the durability of our policies abroad over the last six years goes without saying. Who knows the conclusions they've drawn? But it's well within the realm of possibility that they actually believe what they're peddling about the United States as a declining power and what that decline means for their latitude to act. Given the direction we're still heading and an election in two years, sic'ing the collectors on their 'perceptions' as well as the usual close watch on capabilities seems to me a highly prudent thing to do. Great piece....
I agree completely. In my discussions with others "in waiting" I also emphasize a few other indicators as to why there will be no major military activity, including unhappiness with Xi's administration and the PRC's long range strategy to achieve a leading, if not the major leadership position in the world. Deng started some changes in this regard that not even Xi dares (or appears to want to) try to change. China's internal politics, as you suggest, are very complex. I want to know more about BeiDaHe results. May Day leadership discussions suggest that Xi has a mountain to climb. The leaks have only begun. Well said Carl. Thanks for stepping out so effectively to challenge current uninformed "conventional wisdom."
Very thoughtful and insightful analysis, Carl. I have a strong interest in China and recently hosted an event in Des Moines paren where I live) featuring ambassadors Nick Burns, Qin gang and Terry Branstad. The focus was agriculture and global food security. My first trip to China was in 1979 when I met Deng Xiaoping and had a chance to speak with him about the Khmer Rouge. The following year I escorted Xi Jinping's father around Iowa, and then welcomed VP she in 2012 to a high-level symposium that I hosted in Des Moines. It would be great fun to have a chance to zoom with you and a few others to share ideas about China . I signed up to get your newsletter. Keep up your interesting work. Ken
Excellent assessment! You are one of the few who address the complexities of an amphibious operation onto Taiwan. The beaches are narrow, the offshore approach anchorages daunting, the exits quite few and, where present in numbers, are often obstructed or channelized by cliffs, coastal mountains, and urban complexes.
Thoughtful, reasoned, historically grounded and, reflecting crucial real world experience with estimating events, including how far, or not estimators should go. Without the requirement to observe the bright line between intelligence and policy as a card-carrying private citizen these days, I would only add that events in this country underscore the possibility of, as you put, it 'stupid' playing an unpredictable role in US decisions down the road. That the Xi's and Putins of the world have watched our domestic political forces at work (as have our allies) undermining both our political system and the durability of our policies abroad over the last six years goes without saying. Who knows the conclusions they've drawn? But it's well within the realm of possibility that they actually believe what they're peddling about the United States as a declining power and what that decline means for their latitude to act. Given the direction we're still heading and an election in two years, sic'ing the collectors on their 'perceptions' as well as the usual close watch on capabilities seems to me a highly prudent thing to do. Great piece....
I agree completely. In my discussions with others "in waiting" I also emphasize a few other indicators as to why there will be no major military activity, including unhappiness with Xi's administration and the PRC's long range strategy to achieve a leading, if not the major leadership position in the world. Deng started some changes in this regard that not even Xi dares (or appears to want to) try to change. China's internal politics, as you suggest, are very complex. I want to know more about BeiDaHe results. May Day leadership discussions suggest that Xi has a mountain to climb. The leaks have only begun. Well said Carl. Thanks for stepping out so effectively to challenge current uninformed "conventional wisdom."
Very thoughtful and insightful analysis, Carl. I have a strong interest in China and recently hosted an event in Des Moines paren where I live) featuring ambassadors Nick Burns, Qin gang and Terry Branstad. The focus was agriculture and global food security. My first trip to China was in 1979 when I met Deng Xiaoping and had a chance to speak with him about the Khmer Rouge. The following year I escorted Xi Jinping's father around Iowa, and then welcomed VP she in 2012 to a high-level symposium that I hosted in Des Moines. It would be great fun to have a chance to zoom with you and a few others to share ideas about China . I signed up to get your newsletter. Keep up your interesting work. Ken